nwsl projections

resolve nwsl

NWSL 2026 season projection from our team Elo (1,458 ASA games 2016–2026) + 10k Monte Carlo of the 147 remaining matches + single-elim playoff bracket. Currently shipping the regular-season + Championship projection through November 22, 2026.

NWSL 2026 Season Projection

16-team table · current standings + projected final points + P(playoffs) + P(reach SF/F) + P(WIN Championship). Top of board: Gotham 35% / KC 26% / Washington 24% championship probability.

Team Elo + 10k MC · 16 teams

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how it's built

Data: 1,458 NWSL matches 2016-2026 from American Soccer Analysis (with team xG) + remaining 2026 schedule from ESPN
Team Elo: K=30 base × goal-margin scaling × knockout-game mult ×1.3, HFA = 60 Elo points
Cold-start mult 2.0 for first 10 matches per team (handles expansion: Bay FC, Boston Legacy, Denver Summit)
Goal model: bivariate Poisson, total goals base 2.6, ratio split by 10^(elo_diff/400)
Playoff format: top 8 single-elim. QF + SF higher seed hosts, Championship neutral. Ties → sudden-death (Elo-weighted)
10,000 MC sims of remaining 147 matches + bracket. Standings tiebreak: pts → GD → GF